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Page history last edited by Joshua Levy 11 years, 8 months ago

Timing is not rocket science:

Phase I studies take at least 1 year. (And often longer.)

Phase II studies take at least 1.5 years. (And often longer.)

Phase III studies take at least 1.5 years. (And often longer.)

So if you need to do all three of them, the wait will be at least 4 years, and if

you need to do some "pre-clinical" research or if you don't yet have permission to start your Phase I trial, then you wait longer....


And that assumes you want to be the first person in line to get the treatment the second it finishes Phase III. I wouldn't. So my basic estimate is that any treatment that is NOT in Phase I trials right now, is about 10 years away. Maybe 8-9 if the stars align.


So my "rule of thumb" for this is:

In Phase I -> 8-9 years away.

In Phase II -> 7-8 years away.

In Phase III -> 5-6 years away.


But the math is not exact, and it depends how quickly you are willing to use new treatments after the are approved. Also, remember that one Phase does not start the second the previous phase finishes. There are at least two types of delay: getting approvals and recruiting subjects takes time.


Chance of reaching the market4
10-30% 30-60% 60-80% 80-90%

4 Industrial average, source: Ernst&Young, 2009.

Joshua Levy


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